Human Hypercomplexity. Error and Unpredictability in Complex Multi-Chaotic Social Systems

In the past, many scientists were convinced that, in the not so distant future, it would be possible to obtain a thorough understanding of virtually all phenomena, controlling and managing their complexity. However, it was slowly becoming evident that traditional linear models and reductionist/deterministic approaches were no longer capable of analyzing the unstable dynamics of reality. And yet, a limited vision of reality persists even today, despite (or perhaps due to) the ongoing anthropological transformation and the enormous advances made in digital technology. Experts in IT and AI, scientists, sociologists, educators and political decision-makers alike are convinced that it will soon be possible to eliminate error, doubt and unpredictability from our society and from our lives. This is one of the grand illusions of the hyper-technological civilization, leading to what I have in the past defined “the great mistake”: the belief that all problems can be solved by delegating solutions solely to technology, and that complexity in social systems can be measured, managed and predicted through data, algorithms, formulas and statistics. Furthermore, the accelerations of technology, the increase in variables and parameters, the enhanced strategic role of communication, have hurled us into hyper-complexity, which we need to learn how to inhabit. This learning process can only unroll through a systemic approach in which the epistemology of error plays a key role.