We are designing a system to forecast rainfall-induced landslides in Italy. The system is based on a set of rainfall thresholds for the possible initiation of landslides, and an ensemble of small scale landslide hazard and risk zonations. Rainfall thresholds include existing and new, national, regional and local empirical thresholds of the intensity-duration (ID) and normalized-ID types. The new thresholds were calculated using objective methods and robust statistical techniques, exploiting existing and new data on rainfall events that have resulted in landslides. The synoptic landslide hazard zonation was obtained through multivariate statistical analysis of small scale environmental information, and catalogues of historical landslides. Similarly, the risk zonation was prepared exploiting a catalogue of historical landslides with human consequences in Italy. The information obtained from the rainfall thresholds and the hazard and risk zonations is combined in a national scale warning system for rainfall-induced landslides to support civil defense decisions.
A prototype system to forecast rainfall induced landslides in Italy
BRUNETTI, Maria Teresa;ROSSI, MAURO;MONDINI, ALESSANDRO CESARE;VALIGI, Daniela;LUCIANI, SILVIA
2009
Abstract
We are designing a system to forecast rainfall-induced landslides in Italy. The system is based on a set of rainfall thresholds for the possible initiation of landslides, and an ensemble of small scale landslide hazard and risk zonations. Rainfall thresholds include existing and new, national, regional and local empirical thresholds of the intensity-duration (ID) and normalized-ID types. The new thresholds were calculated using objective methods and robust statistical techniques, exploiting existing and new data on rainfall events that have resulted in landslides. The synoptic landslide hazard zonation was obtained through multivariate statistical analysis of small scale environmental information, and catalogues of historical landslides. Similarly, the risk zonation was prepared exploiting a catalogue of historical landslides with human consequences in Italy. The information obtained from the rainfall thresholds and the hazard and risk zonations is combined in a national scale warning system for rainfall-induced landslides to support civil defense decisions.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
