Can health conditions predict body weight? An analysis of Italian conscript patterns in the cohorts of 1951 and 1980

This paper investigates the health correlates of a by-product of development economics: the generalised increase in overweight and obesity in the past few decades. Using data from conscript cohorts taken from the archives of Italian military districts in 1951 and 1980, we find that younger conscripts exposed to the rising prevalence of immune-allergological and psychological diseases and metabolic dysfunctions underwent substantial increases in weight. These results are evident with quantile regression models, with the largest gains in diabetes conscripts at the 75th and 90th percentiles of BMI. Estimates include education and specific regional effects to stress the patterns of BMI as a well-being indicator across generations of the Italian population. We conclude that the sizeable increase in percentages of some diseases in the youngest cohort limits the Italian well-being benefits after World War II.