The performance of two simple models for real-time flood forecasting is investigated and compared. The first approach, named as RCM-RT, is based on the Rating Curve Model (RCM) and provides, involving only two parameters, future estimates of both discharge and water level at a river site where only the stage is monitored while the flow is known at an upstream section. The second model, named MHBA, is described by a linear stochastic formulation of flood wave propagation and is based only on stage data. Both models require that the forecast lead-time and the parameters are identified a-priori through a calibration phase involving different observed flood events. The two models are tested on a long reach of the Po River (northern Italy) for several flood events. The obtained results show that both models provide an accurate forecast water level 32 hours in advance.
COMPARISON OF TWO SIMPLE REAL-TIME FLOOD FORECAST MODELS: THE CASE STUDY OF THE PO RIVER (ITALY)
SALTALIPPI, Carla;
2013
Abstract
The performance of two simple models for real-time flood forecasting is investigated and compared. The first approach, named as RCM-RT, is based on the Rating Curve Model (RCM) and provides, involving only two parameters, future estimates of both discharge and water level at a river site where only the stage is monitored while the flow is known at an upstream section. The second model, named MHBA, is described by a linear stochastic formulation of flood wave propagation and is based only on stage data. Both models require that the forecast lead-time and the parameters are identified a-priori through a calibration phase involving different observed flood events. The two models are tested on a long reach of the Po River (northern Italy) for several flood events. The obtained results show that both models provide an accurate forecast water level 32 hours in advance.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
