Municipal elections in Italy provide a fruitful context where specific vote transitions may be associated to meaningful categories of voting behaviour. After presenting a modern methodology of ecological inference and outlining its properties, we study how to interpret, in the light of the literature on voting behaviour, the most relevant entries of three connected tables of voting transitions that can be estimated in municipal elections with runoff: (i) party voted at the previous regional election versus party voted at the municipal election, (ii) party voted at the municipal election versus candidate mayor voted in the same election,(iii) candidate mayor voted initially versus candidate mayor voted at the runoffs. An application to the 2011 election in Milan and to the 2012 election in Parma is presented.
Voting behaviour in municipal elections in Italy: a quantitative analysis based on Ecological Inference
GNALDI, MICHELA;BRACALENTE, Bruno;FORCINA, Antonio
2011
Abstract
Municipal elections in Italy provide a fruitful context where specific vote transitions may be associated to meaningful categories of voting behaviour. After presenting a modern methodology of ecological inference and outlining its properties, we study how to interpret, in the light of the literature on voting behaviour, the most relevant entries of three connected tables of voting transitions that can be estimated in municipal elections with runoff: (i) party voted at the previous regional election versus party voted at the municipal election, (ii) party voted at the municipal election versus candidate mayor voted in the same election,(iii) candidate mayor voted initially versus candidate mayor voted at the runoffs. An application to the 2011 election in Milan and to the 2012 election in Parma is presented.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
