Landslides are widespread andevery yearcause casualties and extensive damage. Predicting the spatial and temporal occurrence of landslides is a problem of scientific and societal interest. Empirical threshold model approaches proposed in the literature have limitations related to the heuristic identification of rainfall conditions triggering landslide, to the subjective choice of threshold model, to the biased probability estimation related to the classical empirical threshold model, and to limited use of rainfall events not associated to landslides. A new probabilistic empirical prediction schema is proposed to overcome these limitations. The model was applied successfully in the Umbria region considering rain gauge measures and satellite rainfall estimates.
Probabilistic Prediction of Landslides Induced by Rainfall.
ROSSI, MAURO;MONDINI, ALESSANDRO CESARE;LUCIANI, SILVIA;VALIGI, Daniela;
2014
Abstract
Landslides are widespread andevery yearcause casualties and extensive damage. Predicting the spatial and temporal occurrence of landslides is a problem of scientific and societal interest. Empirical threshold model approaches proposed in the literature have limitations related to the heuristic identification of rainfall conditions triggering landslide, to the subjective choice of threshold model, to the biased probability estimation related to the classical empirical threshold model, and to limited use of rainfall events not associated to landslides. A new probabilistic empirical prediction schema is proposed to overcome these limitations. The model was applied successfully in the Umbria region considering rain gauge measures and satellite rainfall estimates.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
