We show how Bruno de Finetti’s fundamental theorem of prevision has computable applications in statistical problems that involve only partial information. Specifically,we assess accuracy rates for median decision procedures used in the radiological diagnosis of asbestosis. Conditional exchangeability of individual radiologists’ diagnoses is recognized as more appropriate than independence which is commonly presumed. The FTP yields coherent bounds on probabilities of interest when available information is insufficient to determine a complete distribution. Further assertions that are natural to the problem motivate a partial ordering of conditional probabilities, extending the computation from a linear to a quadratic programming problem.

Reassessing accuracy rates from median decision procedures

CAPOTORTI, Andrea;
2007

Abstract

We show how Bruno de Finetti’s fundamental theorem of prevision has computable applications in statistical problems that involve only partial information. Specifically,we assess accuracy rates for median decision procedures used in the radiological diagnosis of asbestosis. Conditional exchangeability of individual radiologists’ diagnoses is recognized as more appropriate than independence which is commonly presumed. The FTP yields coherent bounds on probabilities of interest when available information is insufficient to determine a complete distribution. Further assertions that are natural to the problem motivate a partial ordering of conditional probabilities, extending the computation from a linear to a quadratic programming problem.
2007
File in questo prodotto:
Non ci sono file associati a questo prodotto.

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11391/13048
Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? ND
  • Scopus 23
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? 19
social impact