The study focuses on Lake Trasimeno basin, the fourth largest lake in mainland Italy with its 121 Km2 area. The origins of the Lake are tectonic-alluvial and its particular water regime led it to be extremely sensitive to rainfall variability. In particular, the lake has always suffered from water crisis due to water scarcity. In recent decades, more attention has been paid to such crisis also with respect to an ever-increasing sensitivity to socio-economic and environmental aspects. The study is part of a larger project that develops expert systems for water resources monitoring and management at water basin level by means of a dedicated Web-GIS portal, that is a web-based interface composed of a cartographic part and a database. Specifically, the proposed results are related to lake levels simulations carried out taking into account the climate change scenarios predicted by the IPCC. In a first study (Ludovisi et al. 2013) projections for temperature and rainfall changes in southern Europe and in the Mediterranean area for the A1B scenario have been used (IPCC, 2007). Based on these projections and starting from historical records of the Trasimeno basin, three sets of data for rainfalls and temperatures have been generated for the period 2010-2090. Hypotheses of minimum, average and maximum value for both temperature increase and rainfall decrease have been considered, obtaining three lake levels simulation scenarios in increasing level of criticality: minimum (Tmin-Pmax), average (Tmed-Pmed), maximum (Tmax-Pmin). In a second study (Peppoloni, 2014) a set of data processed by the Tyndall Center and stored into a database (Tyndall Center, 2004) have been used for water levels simulations, such records consisting of a complete set of spatial grids of high resolution climate data. These simulations take into account some of the various climate models (GCMs) and development global scenarios present on the AR4 (Fourth IPCC Report on Global Climate Change).
The hydrology of Lake Trasimeno and climate change: simulation scenarios and real data
CASADEI, Stefano
2015
Abstract
The study focuses on Lake Trasimeno basin, the fourth largest lake in mainland Italy with its 121 Km2 area. The origins of the Lake are tectonic-alluvial and its particular water regime led it to be extremely sensitive to rainfall variability. In particular, the lake has always suffered from water crisis due to water scarcity. In recent decades, more attention has been paid to such crisis also with respect to an ever-increasing sensitivity to socio-economic and environmental aspects. The study is part of a larger project that develops expert systems for water resources monitoring and management at water basin level by means of a dedicated Web-GIS portal, that is a web-based interface composed of a cartographic part and a database. Specifically, the proposed results are related to lake levels simulations carried out taking into account the climate change scenarios predicted by the IPCC. In a first study (Ludovisi et al. 2013) projections for temperature and rainfall changes in southern Europe and in the Mediterranean area for the A1B scenario have been used (IPCC, 2007). Based on these projections and starting from historical records of the Trasimeno basin, three sets of data for rainfalls and temperatures have been generated for the period 2010-2090. Hypotheses of minimum, average and maximum value for both temperature increase and rainfall decrease have been considered, obtaining three lake levels simulation scenarios in increasing level of criticality: minimum (Tmin-Pmax), average (Tmed-Pmed), maximum (Tmax-Pmin). In a second study (Peppoloni, 2014) a set of data processed by the Tyndall Center and stored into a database (Tyndall Center, 2004) have been used for water levels simulations, such records consisting of a complete set of spatial grids of high resolution climate data. These simulations take into account some of the various climate models (GCMs) and development global scenarios present on the AR4 (Fourth IPCC Report on Global Climate Change).I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
