Evidence for a time lag in solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays

The solar modulation effect of cosmic rays in the heliosphere is an energy-, time-, and particle-dependent phenomenon that arises from a combination of basic particle transport processes such as diffusion, convection, adiabatic cooling, and drift motion. Making use of a large collection of time-resolved cosmic-ray data from recent space missions, we construct a simple predictive model of solar modulation that depends on direct solar-physics inputs: the number of solar sunspots and the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet. Under this framework, we present calculations of cosmic-ray proton spectra, positron/electron and antiproton/proton ratios, and their time dependence in connection with the evolving solar activity. We report evidence for a time lag Delta T = 8.1 +/- 1.2 months, between solar-activity data and cosmic-ray flux measurements in space, which reflects the dynamics of the formation of the modulation region. This result enables us to forecast the cosmic-ray flux near Earth well in advance by monitoring solar activity.