Definition of Probability That Energy Production Differs from Demand, a Statistical Approach

Starting from the average trend of energy demand and energy production related to a specific user, the goal is to produce an immediate estimate, as close as possible to the true value (clearly achievable only through a precise and punctual measurement), of the difference existing between these two values, in order to “a priori” understand whether an energy production surplus should be expected, or the opposite trend will occur. If energy produced exceeds the request, two solutions will be possible. An accumulation system can be provided, that allows to avoid taking energy from the grid whenever the trend reserves and the demand exceeds the production. The second solution consists in directly introduce the whole surplus of energy produced in the electricity grid. Similarly, even if the energy required exceeds the amount of energy produced, two different solutions can be envisaged. In both cases, it will be necessary to take energy from the electricity grid. An accumulation system could be created, sized on the maximum difference between production and energy demand, evaluated when the production exceeds the request (if the production never exceeds the request, it would not make sense to talk about accumulation) or, even in this case, a direct exchange might be promoted, both incoming and outgoing, with the electricity grid. Topic of the present paper is to not reasoning any more in terms of energy performances as a function of time but, on the contrary, determine the probability that the difference existing between production and demand assumes a certain value and, based on this, estimate the amount of energy to be stored and/or exchange with the grid.