Convergence of KAYA components in the European Union toward the 2050 decarbonization target

The ambitious 2050 decarbonization strategy of the European Union (EU) must implement and reconcile several economic, social, and technological targets, such as continuous prosperity, growth, and increases in energy pro- duction and reductions in fossil fuel (FOS) intensity. These dimensions are included in a modified Kaya identity that, consequently, becomes a considerably useful accounting identity to analyze convergence among the EU member states toward a carbon neutrality target. Surprisingly, no comprehensive analysis of the convergence of the growth of all Kaya components toward the decarbonization target among the EU countries and the rest of the world has been conducted thus far. This study fills this gap in the literature by providing the first comprehensive evidence for the simultaneous convergence process of FOS reduction for all the Kaya components from 1990 to 2018. A balanced panel data is used in the study. The results reveal that there is evidence of -absolute and con- ditional -convergence process for several groups of EU countries. Furthermore, to provide policy recommenda- tions, we simulate alternative scenarios to assess when the target levels of decarbonization can be reached, pro- viding relevant policy implications for the credibility of the 2050 EU policy regarding climate change.