Numerical Modelling of Rock Fragmentation in Landslide Propagation: A Test Case

Landslides and rockfalls can negatively impact human activities and cause radical changes to the surrounding environment. For example, they can destroy entire buildings and roadway infrastructure, block waterways and create sudden dams, resulting in upstream flooding and increased flood risk downstream. In extreme cases, they can even cause loss of life. External factors such as weathering, vegetation and mechanical stress alterations play a decisive role in their evolution. These actions can reduce strength, which can have an adverse impact on the slope’s ability to withstand failure. For rockfalls, this process also affects fragmentation, creating variations in the size, shape and volume of detached blocks, which influences propagation and impact on the slope. In this context, the Morino-Rendinara landslide is a clear example of rockfall propagation influenced by fragmentation. In this case, fragmentation results from tectonic stresses acting on the materials as well as specific climatic conditions affecting rock mass properties. This study explores how different fragmentation scales influence both velocity and landslide propagation along the slope. Using numerical models, based on lumped mass approach and stochastic analyses, various scenarios of rock material fracturing were examined and their impact on runout was assessed. Different scenarios were defined, varying only the fragmentation degree and different random seed sets at the beginning of simulations, carried out using the Rock-GIS tool. The results suggest that rock masses with high fracturing show reduced cohesion along joints and cracks, which significantly lowers their shear strength and makes them more prone to failure. Increased fragmentation further decreases the bonding between rock blocks, thereby accelerating landslide propagation. Conversely, less fragmented rocks retain higher resistance, which limits the extent of movement. These processes are influenced by uncertainties related to the distribution and impact of different alteration grades, resulting from variable tectonic stresses and/or atmospheric weathering. Therefore, a stochastic distribution model was developed to integrate the results of all simulations and to reconstruct both the landslide propagation and the evolution of its deposits. This study emphasizes the critical role of fragmentation and the volume involved in rockfalls and their runout behaviour. Furthermore, the method provides a framework for enhancing risk assessment in complex geological environments and for developing mitigation strategies, particularly regarding runout distance and block size.