Climate Change-Agrifood-Conflict Nexus Pathways: A Scoping Review of the Literature

This paper explores the pathways linking climate change and conflict, shedding light on the critical role the agrifood system can play as an intermediary. By conducting a scoping review of recent literature (2014-2024), this paper identifies two main pathways: increased competition over natural resources used in agriculture and decreased agricultural productivity. While some relationships, such as those examining the immediate causes of conflict – like threats to livelihoods, increased migration, and food insecurity – have been extensively studied, others, such as the impact of price changes and market forces, remain surprisingly underexplored. Various empirical approaches have been employed to identify these pathways, including ordinary least squares and logit/probit regressions as well as instrumental variables and structural equation modeling. Recently, the availability of high-resolution georeferenced datasets including socio-economic, environmental and conflict data, along with methodological advancements like spatial econometrics, have prompted more detailed and rigorous analyses. Current research gaps include the paucity of empirical studies at the micro level and the insufficient exploration of how market-based mechanisms influence the dynamics between climate change and conflict through the agrifood sector. The paper discusses future research directions, emphasizing the need for multidisciplinary approaches.