Dynamic and static analysis of environmental variables in coronavirus spread

Although a worldwide health crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic affected several geographical areas in Italy in very different ways in terms of infection rate, morbidity, and death. In the present work, we carefully studied the incidence rate in several Italian provinces and propose a complete data analysis strategy to explore, preprocess, and analyse the time series of COVID-19 positive and hospitalised cases with a daily cadency. We applied a new procedure, developed for unevenly sampled data (Discrete Correlation Function), to perform the cross-correlation analysis looking at possible correlation between COVID-19 positive and hospitalised cases with the air quality during the first pandemic wave. It is a completely new approach, that makes use of techniques used in transversal fields, such as signal processing and astronomy. The study suggests some plausible correlations between COVID-19 time series and NO related air pollutants. Instead, differently from what often has been reported, we did not find any specific correlation between COVID-19 infection and PM air pollutant. We further corroborate the results using a Machine Learning approach that uses Random Forest and the Permutation Feature Importance Analysis to include a wider set of possible risk factors, founding the same dependence between COVID-19 cases and NO related air pollutants.