Energy Transitions and Emission Dynamics: Pathways to a Renewable Transition in the Global South

This paper examines the structural constraints shaping energy policy design in low- and lower-middle-income countries facing a triple challenge: reducing carbon intensity, expanding access to affordable, modern energy, and maintaining resilience amid geopolitical fragmentation. Rather than treating emissions only as an environmental outcome, cross-country variation in carbon dioxide (CO2) intensity is interpreted as evidence on the policy conditions under which equitable energy transition is more or less feasible in the Global South. The study examines the relationships between CO2 emissions and key factors, including fossil fuel intensity, natural resource rents, methane emissions, renewable energy uptake, water stress, and gross domestic product, to evaluate the constraints and opportunities faced by economies with limited energy security. The analysis shows that the main challenge for equitable energy transition in the Global South is not emissions growth in isolation, but a structural configuration in which fossil-fuel reliance, resource dependence, and methane-intensive production reinforce carbon lock-in, while renewable deployment creates uneven but measurable room for lower-carbon development. These patterns remain stable across average, distributional, and nonlinear specifications, indicating that transition constraints differ systematically across countries rather than reflecting a single common pathway. The findings suggest that reducing fossil dependence, improving the governance of natural resource rents, and accelerating renewable deployment are central not only to emissions mitigation but also to protecting energy affordability, access, and resilience under geopolitical fragmentation. These conclusions are supported by complementary econometric and machine learning robustness checks designed to test whether the identified structural pressures remain stable across linear, heterogeneous, and nonlinear settings.