Exploring the Complexity of International Trade Networks with TERRA

Over recent decades, international trade has expanded significantly, increasing economic integration but also amplifying systemic vulnerabilities. Recent global shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine conflict, have exposed the fragility of international trade systems, underscoring the need for analytical tools to enable timely, evidence-based trade policy. This paper introduces TERRA, an analytical framework created by the Italian National Institute of Statistics to support the monitoring and analysis of European trade patterns using official statistics. Using high-frequency Eurostat COMEXT data, TERRA integrates network-based representations and time series indicators to identify structural vulnerabilities, emerging concentrations, and changes in countries’ roles within trade networks. Beyond interactive monitoring, the framework supports advanced analytical extensions, including programmatic longitudinal analyses and model-based counterfactual analyses, designed to explore trade reallocation mechanisms under stylized supply shocks. The analytical potential of TERRA is shown through two case studies: electricity trade during the COVID-19 pandemic and weapons and ammunition trade during the Russia–Ukraine conflict. The findings demonstrate how network-based monitoring tools, grounded in official statistics, can effectively interpret complex trade dynamics and support evidence-based trade governance.