THE GREAT GLOBAL UNCERTAINTY: THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AS A CASE STUDY

This paper analyzes the COVID-19 pandemic as a case study within the broader phase of the Great Global Uncertainty. The objective is threefold. First, the paper reconstructs the economic evolution of the pandemic between 2020 and 2022, highlighting the sequence of shocks that characterized both the recessionary phase and the subsequent recovery. Second, it examines the macroeconomic policy responses adopted to address the health emergency and its economic consequences, with particular attention to the interaction between ultra-expansive fiscal policy and unconventional monetary policy. Third, the paper applies a simple macroeconomic framework to interpret the crisis, showing how the pandemic can be understood as a combined supply- and demand-side shock amplified by policy interventions. By treating COVID-19 as a case study, the paper provides a theoretical interpretation of the economic dynamics observed during the initial phase of the Great Global Uncertainty.