The city of Pavia can be inundated by Ticino floods or, more often, by Po backwaters, since Pavia is located not far away from the confluence of the two rivers. A real-time forecasting system has been set up to forecast with a reasonable time advance possible floods. The system is based on data gathered from a monitoring network. A statistical simulation model, whose structure step-by-step linearizes the equations of the hydraulic process, forecasts flood levels in Pavia. The parameters of the model are estimated and updated every hour through a recursive procedure. The model gives the water stages of Ticino in Pavia with a lead time that equals the transfer time of the flood waves.
Application of a model for flood forecasting
SALTALIPPI, Carla
1997
Abstract
The city of Pavia can be inundated by Ticino floods or, more often, by Po backwaters, since Pavia is located not far away from the confluence of the two rivers. A real-time forecasting system has been set up to forecast with a reasonable time advance possible floods. The system is based on data gathered from a monitoring network. A statistical simulation model, whose structure step-by-step linearizes the equations of the hydraulic process, forecasts flood levels in Pavia. The parameters of the model are estimated and updated every hour through a recursive procedure. The model gives the water stages of Ticino in Pavia with a lead time that equals the transfer time of the flood waves.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
