The link between extent of simplification of on-line flood forecasting models and type of adaptive scheme incorporated was investigated. It was used in a model involving on-line flow measurements, carried out at the basin outlet and in an additional position upstream, and combining rainfall-runoff and flood routing procedures. A basic and a modified versions were considered; they substantially stem from the choice of different simplification of basin elements. Namely, in the first version, the parameters are adjusted on-line using the discharges observed at the basin outlet together with those measured at a sub-basin outlet upstream, where flow forecasts are performed through a rainfall-runoff component. In the other version the sub-basin flow forecasts are replaced assuming a persistence of on-line observed discharges. The two model versions were applied to real events observed on large Italian basins. From the analysis of results it appeared that a proper localization of the additional station allowed to obtain an appreciable accuracy of forecasts at the outlet by the basic version and simultaneously made the modified version similar to the basic one. This implies that the raingauge network in the sub-basin may be completely eliminated.

On the role of flow forecasts upstream in determining the accuracy of flood forecasting at the basin outlet

CORRADINI, Corrado;
1990

Abstract

The link between extent of simplification of on-line flood forecasting models and type of adaptive scheme incorporated was investigated. It was used in a model involving on-line flow measurements, carried out at the basin outlet and in an additional position upstream, and combining rainfall-runoff and flood routing procedures. A basic and a modified versions were considered; they substantially stem from the choice of different simplification of basin elements. Namely, in the first version, the parameters are adjusted on-line using the discharges observed at the basin outlet together with those measured at a sub-basin outlet upstream, where flow forecasts are performed through a rainfall-runoff component. In the other version the sub-basin flow forecasts are replaced assuming a persistence of on-line observed discharges. The two model versions were applied to real events observed on large Italian basins. From the analysis of results it appeared that a proper localization of the additional station allowed to obtain an appreciable accuracy of forecasts at the outlet by the basic version and simultaneously made the modified version similar to the basic one. This implies that the raingauge network in the sub-basin may be completely eliminated.
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11391/910989
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